My Thoughts on the Future is an essay by Falak Khan on the economics of the falling cost of intelligence. It defines the effective token, a unit that normalises price by measured intelligence using the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, and shows that the cost of a fixed level of capability fell about 875 times in 28 months, roughly halving every three months, across GPT, Claude, DeepSeek and Kimi models. It pairs that collapse with the rise in what agents can do, measured by the METR task horizon, and with the physical constraint of data centre electricity demand projected by the IEA to reach 945 terawatt hours by 2030. The argument: generic software trends toward the cost of the tokens that produce it, while scarcity migrates to compute, energy, verified data, trust and access.
